What Happened: The U.S. re-engages in the Sahel, pushing for critical mineral access amid regional instability and Russian influence. Meanwhile, Russia’s SVR takes over Wagner’s Africa operations, expanding influence through disinformation and covert influence campaigns.
Why It Matters: The scramble for Africa’s resources is heating up, shaping alliances, and potentially spilling over into supply chain disruptions for Europe and France. Russia and the U.S. are vying for strategic dominance—altering the regional security landscape.
Short-Term: Increased diplomatic tensions and potential supply chain shuffles in the coming months.
Long-Term: Longer-term shifts in influence, possibly diminishing France's traditional reach in favor of new global powers.
Sentiment:
Mixed - Concerns about increased geopolitical rivalry and influence expansion, but also opportunities for partnership diversification.