What Happened: The Sahel faces rising violence from groups like JNIM, ISGS, Boko Haram, and foreign mercenaries like Wagner, leading to military setbacks and humanitarian crises.
Why It Matters: This chaos thwarts regional development, disrupts supply chains, and complicates international partnerships — including France’s influence in Africa.
Short-Term: Expect increased military deployments and humanitarian aid efforts.
Long-Term: Potential long-term destabilization, impacting France's strategic and economic interests.
Sentiment:
Negative - Escalating violence and geopolitical instability undermine stability and French influence.